EXAMINATION / IDEA: Biden 6 points ahead of Trump in key state

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If the American elections were today, Democrat Joe Biden would beat current American President Donald Trump with 6% advantage in Pennsylvania, a state considered essential to winning the White House race. While the Democratic candidate has 51% of the voting intentions, Trump appears with 45%. The undecided add up to 4%.

The data are from the most recent survey of voters in the United States by EXAME / IDEIA, which unites EXAME Research, EXAME’s investment analysis arm, and IDEIA, a research institute specialized in public opinion. 1,200 people were heard by telephone between October 19 and 22. The margin of error is 3.15 percentage points more or less.

Biden beats Trump in practically all installments of the electorate, mainly among Latinos (68% to 31%) and blacks (73% to 25%). Among the white population – which traditionally votes more for Republican candidates – the Democrat does not win, but it has the same 46% of Trump’s vote intent. Among those who vote by mail, Biden has a wide advantage (63% to 34%), a factor that should be decisive in the state in the midst of the pandemic.

“In Pennsylvania the dispute is in the suburbs, where the candidates are balanced, tied in the margin of error [48% a 45% para Biden]. Many people there will also vote by mail. These two factors collaborate so that the voting result does not come out on the 3rd, ”explains Maurício Moura, founder of IDEIA and responsible for research, in the new episode of the EXAME Politics podcast.

In the American electoral system, each state has a number of votes and whoever wins takes all the votes in most states, even if the victory has been tight.

For journalist Sérgio Teixeira Junior, who from New York covers the American elections for EXAME, Trump will hardly be able to reverse research trends, who also point to their defeat in other key states, such as Georgia, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. “Only a superhuman effort in these key states to reverse this scenario. But the theme of the campaign’s final stretch will continue to be the coronavirus and, with this increase in the number of new cases, Trump doesn’t have much to say ”, explains the journalist.

The same IDEIA / EXAME poll shows that 65% of Pennsylvania voters disapprove of Trump’s response to the pandemic. Even among whites and suburban residents, this assessment remains – with 55% and 65%, respectively, disapproving of the Republican’s pandemic management.

MORE MONEY, MORE ADVANTAGE

For Moura, at this point in the electoral race, trying to convince the small number of undecided voters is a “waste of time”. The biggest challenge for parties at this point is therefore to encourage voters to leave the house and vote – in the US, voting is not mandatory. In that sense, Biden also takes advantage.

“Out of every five dollars raised by Biden, Trump has raised only one. And he intends to use 35% of these resources to get people out of the house to vote, or to vote in advance ”, analyzes the researcher.

Pennsylvania state polls, the October 22 presidential debate and the final stretch of the electoral race are the themes of the newest episode of the Political EXAME podcast: American elections.

Source: Exame

If the American elections were today, Democrat Joe Biden would beat current American President Donald Trump with 6% advantage in Pennsylvania, a state considered essential to winning the White House race. While the Democratic candidate has 51% of the voting intentions, Trump appears with 45%. The undecided add up to 4%.

The data are from the most recent survey of voters in the United States by EXAME / IDEIA, which unites EXAME Research, EXAME’s investment analysis arm, and IDEIA, a research institute specialized in public opinion. 1,200 people were heard by telephone between October 19 and 22. The margin of error is 3.15 percentage points more or less.

Biden beats Trump in practically all installments of the electorate, mainly among Latinos (68% to 31%) and blacks (73% to 25%). Among the white population – which traditionally votes more for Republican candidates – the Democrat does not win, but it has the same 46% of Trump’s vote intent. Among those who vote by mail, Biden has a wide advantage (63% to 34%), a factor that should be decisive in the state in the midst of the pandemic.

“In Pennsylvania the dispute is in the suburbs, where the candidates are balanced, tied in the margin of error [48% a 45% para Biden]. Many people there will also vote by mail. These two factors collaborate so that the voting result does not come out on the 3rd, ”explains Maurício Moura, founder of IDEIA and responsible for research, in the new episode of the EXAME Politics podcast.

In the American electoral system, each state has a number of votes and whoever wins takes all the votes in most states, even if the victory has been tight.

For journalist Sérgio Teixeira Junior, who from New York covers the American elections for EXAME, Trump will hardly be able to reverse research trends, who also point to their defeat in other key states, such as Georgia, Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. “Only a superhuman effort in these key states to reverse this scenario. But the theme of the campaign’s final stretch will continue to be the coronavirus and, with this increase in the number of new cases, Trump doesn’t have much to say ”, explains the journalist.

The same IDEIA / EXAME poll shows that 65% of Pennsylvania voters disapprove of Trump’s response to the pandemic. Even among whites and suburban residents, this assessment remains – with 55% and 65%, respectively, disapproving of the Republican’s pandemic management.

MORE MONEY, MORE ADVANTAGE

For Moura, at this point in the electoral race, trying to convince the small number of undecided voters is a “waste of time”. The biggest challenge for parties at this point is therefore to encourage voters to leave the house and vote – in the US, voting is not mandatory. In that sense, Biden also takes advantage.

“Out of every five dollars raised by Biden, Trump has raised only one. And he intends to use 35% of these resources to get people out of the house to vote, or to vote in advance ”, analyzes the researcher.

Pennsylvania state polls, the October 22 presidential debate and the final stretch of the electoral race are the themes of the newest episode of the Political EXAME podcast: American elections.

Source: Exame

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